Senator Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has been appointed as the interim Prime Minister of Pakistan, entrusted with leading the nation until new parliamentary elections are held and a fresh government is formed. This appointment gained the endorsement of the military’s high council, comprising Commanders from nine Corps and three Corps-level formations…. Writes Malladi Rama Rao & Atul Cowshish
Pakistan Army is back in the driver’s seat. It has regained its most-powerful institution status with the arrest of Imran Khan and the ‘no protest show’ following his conviction on corruption charges. His disqualification from contesting elections has not evoked even proforma protests with the cadres of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf, (PTI) said to have gone underground.
The intelligence agencies in Pakistan are pleased to get almost unbridled powers as a parting gift of the Shehbaz Sharif government, which hastily amended the century-old Official Secrets Act. Now the agencies have the power to arrest people at will even on flimsy charges. This will surely see a big spurt in the phenomenon of missing persons especially in the insurgency-hit Balochistan and Pashtun belt.
Senator Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has been appointed as the interim Prime Minister of Pakistan, entrusted with leading the nation until new parliamentary elections are held and a fresh government is formed. This appointment gained the endorsement of the military’s high council, comprising Commanders from nine Corps and three Corps-level formations. While an interim Prime Minister is not anticipated to make significant policy choices, in the event of crucial matters arising, deliberations will occur at the General Headquarters (GHQ) and subsequently communicated to the Prime Minister for action.
The economy is the Achilles heel of Pakistan. There is no magic wand for a quick turnaround despite an IMF bailout package of $3 billion and loans from China and Saudi Arabia. The World Bank estimates that its GDP growth will be abysmal – not even half a percentage point.
Neither a technocrat nor a non-political prime minister nor the generals will be able to wish away the economic mess. In fact, the deep-rooted economic malaise is the reason for the reluctance of the GHQ to lead the charge from the front. It is content with back-seat driving as a member of the newly constituted Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). This institutionalized role has however sparked concerns about Army’s potential outreach and diminishing civilian oversight.
The security problem is no less formidable. The Afghan Taliban leadership is refusing to accede to Pakistan’s request to rein in their fellow Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, TTP, warriors active in Pakistan’s tribal belt. Also known as Pakistan Taliban, TTP is an umbrella organization of various Islamist armed militant groups with close ties with al-Qaeda. Its sole aim is to usher in Sharia-based regime in Pakistan by waging a terrorist campaign against the Pakistan army and the state.
For the Pak Army Chief Gen Asim Munir, TTP and Imran Khan are two sides of the same problem since the former playboy turned maverick political messiah draws his support from Islamist fundamentalists. In fact, the manner in which he was thrown out of power has boosted his already high rate of popularity with the deeply religious masses. Political analysts aver that his arrest and disqualification from contesting polls will further add to his popularity. He is going to loom large over the poll arena to the discomfort of mainstream players – Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan Muslim League-N, (PML-N) and Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).
Yet, it cannot be said for sure at this stage that Imran Khan’s popularity among the masses will increase in the next few months due to his imprisonment. Moreover, most of the senior leaders of his PTI are scared of annoying the military since they are also facing charges like inciting crowds to damage military property. They have already either deserted Imran, formed separate outfits or simply taken political sanyas.
Imran Khan’s proxy plans to recapture power will suffer a setback in case Nawaz Sharif returns home from his London perch next month as planned, and leads the PML N poll battle. As of now, there is no certainty, though his brother Shehbaz has declared that Nawaz would be the Prime Minister again if the party is voted to power.
The elder Sharif is considered to be a more skilled politician than his younger brother. His hold in the Punjab province, which is the backbone of the Army as its recruitment ground, is believed to be quite intact, despite his long absence.
The Sharifs may be going to the polls with some advantage because of the physical absence of Imran Khan on the poll stage. But a more accurate assessment of that factor will be seen only when the poll campaign actually takes off.
The desertions from the PTI may not count for much if it is believed that PTI is all about the former cricketer and that others who had joined him gained importance or prominence only due to him. In other words, many of the PTI leaders who have quit are not crowd-pullers or mass leaders.
The only way the ex-PTI leaders can make an impact at the polls is if the military backs them. After all, Imran Khan as a serious political challenger was created and propped by the military. It was his refusal to learn some fundamentals of Pakistan politics that had led to the military withdrawing its patronage. The most egregious act of Imran was incurring the wrath of the former army chief—and even the current chief whom he had removed as chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) which nurtures the ‘non-state’ actors to bleed India in Kashmir.
Put simply, it is the Pakistan Army that holds the key to the domestic political scene of the coming months. The Army may engineer to put in place a pliable coalition rather than popping up a new single protégé. This may be bad news for Nawaz and Zardari but the country may see a revival of democracy of some sort since the GHQ Shura appears keen to retain the goodwill of the White House and Pentagon alike.