Analysts have warned that attempts by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to reassert control over Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region risk reigniting conflict with the federal government. The political manoeuvring comes despite a fragile peace deal that ended one of Africa’s deadliest recent wars…reports Africa Daily News Desk
Moves by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to restore its authority in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region have raised fears of renewed conflict with the federal government, analysts have warned.
The TPLF fought a devastating civil war against Ethiopia’s federal authorities between 2020 and 2022, in a conflict estimated to have killed at least 600,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more.
A peace agreement signed in November 2022 ended the fighting and led to the formation of an interim administration in Tigray backed by the federal government in Addis Ababa. The arrangement sidelined several senior TPLF wartime figures and dissolved regional institutions linked to the party’s previous rule.
However, frustration has been growing within Tigray over the slow implementation of key parts of the peace agreement, including the return of displaced people, reconstruction efforts and political arrangements for the region.
Last month, the TPLF restored the regional parliament that had been dissolved under the terms of the peace agreement. On Tuesday, party leader Debretsion Gebremichael was elected to head the restored body, according to TPLF deputy leader Amanuel Assefa.
“The interim administration no longer exists,” Amanuel told AFP.
The declaration has fuelled concerns that the political standoff could escalate into a direct confrontation with the federal government.
Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, described the developments as “extremely worrying”.
“It is a strategy to rock the boat to see if it gives room for Tigray to obtain a stronger status in negotiating its financial and political status within the federation,” he told AFP.
Tronvoll said it remained unclear whether the latest moves would lead to “negotiations or confrontations”.
The Ethiopian federal government has not publicly responded to the appointment of Debretsion or to the TPLF’s claim that the interim administration has ceased to exist.
The TPLF once dominated Ethiopian politics, effectively controlling the federal government for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. Relations between the two sides deteriorated sharply in the years that followed, culminating in the outbreak of war in November 2020.
Although the peace agreement formally ended the conflict, tensions have persisted across Tigray. Many residents continue to face severe economic hardship and humanitarian difficulties.
Several hundred thousand people remain displaced by the fighting, while the region has struggled financially after federal subsidies were reduced or cut off.
The TPLF itself has also faced political setbacks since the war. Last year, Ethiopian authorities banned the group as a political party, despite its continued influence within Tigray.
Analysts say the latest developments highlight the fragility of the peace process and the unresolved political divisions between Tigray’s leadership and the federal authorities.
Abel Abate Demissie, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank, warned that the continuing political manoeuvring carried serious risks.
“The constant manoeuvring could easily lead to a disastrous conflict,” he wrote on X.
Tensions have also been heightened by wider regional disputes. On Tuesday, the Ethiopian government accused the Sudanese army of financing TPLF “mercenaries”, an allegation the TPLF denied.
The accusations come amid strained relations between Ethiopia and Sudan over border issues and the ongoing instability in Sudan itself.
Observers say any renewed fighting in Tigray could have severe humanitarian and political consequences for Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa region, which is already grappling with conflict, displacement and economic pressures.
