Whoever wins the American presidential elections be it Donald Trump or Kamala Harris this election could see the end of the American Century … writes Mihir Bose
Whoever wins the American presidential elections be it Donald Trump or Kamala Harris this election could see the end of the American Century.
This idea first originated towards the end of the Second World War. That is when Americans began to boast that we were now entering the American Century. The Americans knew that European empires would have to give their non-white peoples freedom and, while Britain and France fought wars not to, in the end they had to rush back to their homelands with their tails between their legs.
This American Century saw America set up NATO, the Marshall Plan to revive Europe, completely reshape Japan making it a demilitarised country but allowed to keep its emperor and become a major economic power. It also prevented North Korea conquering the south and help the south become, probably, the third biggest economic power in Asia.
Some of its military alliances like Cento and Seato have long been consigned to the dust bin, but nothing has dimmed America’s desire to intervene in the affairs of the world. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, being classic examples, and all the time claiming they were doing this for the good of the world, however ridiculous the claim.
The first Trump administration made it clear it had no truck with such a policy and the while the second may not see Trump with a phone call end the war in Ukraine, as he often boasts, he will certainly withdraw the military support for Ukraine. Harris notionally will continue Biden’s policy of intervention, but America can no longer dictate to the world.
Israel is the classic example. Biden, despite all his efforts and the constant shuttling of his Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who must have earned a lot of air miles, has failed to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the slaughter in Gaza and accept a ceasefire. This is despite the fact that Israel is a close ally and America provides it a huge amount of weapons and other help.
What we could see after the election is the return of isolationism which was the historic position of American foreign policy ever since it defeated its British colonial masters and won freedom nearly 250 years ago. It was proud of the fact that, unlike Europe, it had a government elected by the people with the head of state not a king but a President and this was something unique in world history.
Yes, America took part in the First World War, but it was towards the end of the war and although American President Woodrow Wilson set up the League of Nations America did not join the League of Nations. The second world war changed all that. UN was set up in San Francisco, with its headquarters in New York, and America made sure it controlled the Security Council with the help of its European allies, Britain and France. Such was America’s domination that when having failed to stop China going communist it refused to recognise The Peoples Republic and only did so 30 years after Mao had won in 1949. During that time Taiwan represented China on the Security Council resulting in a farcical situation of this small little island claiming to represent the mainland.
Isolationism chimes in with the wishes of many Americans. Only 48 per cent of Americans have a passport compared to 86% of British people. Indeed, for many Americans going from Arizona to Massachusetts is like a foreign journey.
The other major change we may see is America move away from a free market economy to a more protectionist economy. Trump has already said that he would impose tariffs on China.
But what about the American cultural influence? Surely that will not end. Hollywood movies will still dominate the world. But here the march of technology is already beginning to undercut American dominance. The growth of streaming and more varied means of making movies and documentaries, which no longer have to be shown on big channels, making them more accessible to the public, means Hollywood no longer dominates the world in the way it has since the Second World War. As it is Bollywood makes more movies than Hollywood and is much more powerful than its American rival in many parts of the world including Africa and Asia.
What will replace the American Century remains a very open question. Some signs of the re-ordering of the world are emerging. It is interesting that while we have been concentrating on the American elections we had the BRICS summit. I was Toronto when that summit took place and what struck me was to see the Globe and Mail of Toronto lead its front page with a picture from the summit. The headline underneath the picture was, “From left Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a family photo ceremony during the BRICKs summit in Kazan Russia, on Wednesday.”
BRICKS , a word invented by economist Jim O’Neill to denote Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa almost two decades ago, has not quite lived up to its billing.. It was meant to indicate that what used to be derisively called third world countries, or the South, there was even a magazine by that name I wrote for, are now becoming economically powerful. The Ukraine war has made Putin see this is a useful alliance and while it may never rival Nato it does mean the world is not ruled by one world power in America.
The summit saw something of a rapprochement between India and China after nearly half a century of conflict and could, if not lead to peace, see the two countries not being at such logger heads.
If Harris wins the changes in world affairs may take longer. But they will come.
(Mihir Bose is the author of Thank You Mr Crombie Lessons in Guilt and Gratitude to the British)